| 摘要: |
| 2002~2013年美元贬值、人民币升值对中韩双边产品贸易产生怎样的影响？本文使用统计比较和GMM估计发现:(1)美元弱势调整下中国没有呈现向韩国出口产品偏转，而韩国明显增加了对中国出口产品份额。美元走弱下中国与韩国呈现较高的产品贸易互补性和较低的产品贸易竞争性。(2)美元走弱下韩元兑人民币产品实际贬值不利于中国对韩国出口产品，并没有引致中国从韩国实际进口增加。同期，美元兑人民币实际贬值既不利于中国对美国出口，也没有呈现中国向韩国出口产品偏转，并减少中国从韩国进口产品。实际汇率波动上升显著不利于中国对韩国进出口贸易，而中韩经济增长会显著地增进双边贸易。据此，建立和深化中韩自贸区来拓展贸易市场是重要的，借此扩大两国货币互换规模、创新金融工具来消减汇率风险，将会极大地提升中韩双边贸易。 |
| 关键词: 美元弱势调整 韩元兑人民币汇率 美元兑人民币汇率 中韩双边产品贸易 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金项目(项目编号:11BJY142)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(项目编号:113JJD790005)和上海市教委与教育发展基金会曙光计划项目(项目编号:111SG10)。 |
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| The Effect of US Dollar-weakened Adjustment on Sino-South Korea Bilateral Product Trade |
| SHEN Guo-bing |
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| Abstract: |
| What effect does a weakening US dollar (USD) against RMB have on Sino-South Korea bilateral product trade during 2002-2013? This paper uses statistical comparison and GMM estimation to show that firstly, along with a weakening US dollar, we find no obvious evidence of China’s export deflection to South Korea (SK), whereas SK obviously increases the share of product export to China. Along with a weakening US dollar, there are higher product trade complementarities and lower product trade competitiveness between China and South Korea. Secondly, following a weakening US dollar, real depreciation of RMB/Won exchange rate of goods is bad for China’s product export to SK, and does not bring about the increase of China’s real import from SK. In the meantime, real depreciation of RMB/USD exchange rate is harmful to China’ s export to the US, In addition, it does not bring about the export of China’s deflection to SK, but reduces China’s import from SK. The rise of RMB/Won real exchange rate volatility can bring about significant and adverse impacts on Sino-SK bilateral import and export, whereas economic growth in the two countries can enhance significantly Sino-SK bilateral trade. Therefore, some policy suggestions are that it is very important to establish and deepen Sino-SK Free Trade Area to expand trade markets. The two central banks increase the currency swap scale, and create new financial instruments to reduce exchange rate risks, which promotes Sino-SK bilateral trade to the utmost. |
| Key words: US dollar-weakened adjustment RMB/Won exchange rate RMB/USD exchange rate Sino-South Korea bilateral product trade |
