| 引用本文： |
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吴婷婷,杨丹茜,江世银.中美贸易摩擦对中国金融安全的影响路径研究——基于 PLS模型的验证[J].国际商务研究,2020,(1):85-95 [点击复制]
- WU Tingting,YANG Danxi,JIANG Shiyin.中美贸易摩擦对中国金融安全的影响路径研究——基于 PLS模型的验证[J].INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RESEARCH,2020,(1):85-95 [点击复制]
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| 摘要: |
| 基于第四代金融危机理论、金融脆弱理论和经济与金融关系理论提出贸易摩擦对中国金融安全影响的作用路径，采用偏最小二乘路径分析法，分别构建简单路径模型和复合路径模型。结果显示，研究期复合路径模型更合理，贸易摩擦直接负面影响对中国的金融安全影响效果是显著的，并且贸易摩擦直接负面影响可通过对市场情绪产生积极引导，进而正向影响中国金融安全；而贸易摩擦直接负面影响指标通过中国经济基本面的途径影响中国金融安全的结果则不显著。据此，为了增强金融安全重要影响因素和降低市场情绪，提出以下建议：稳定利率，平衡汇率与债市；结构性调整外贸企业杠杆率，增加直接融资；培育股票市场机构投资者，增强专业性；维持较高外汇储备，应对不确定性风险；中国人民银行继续动用逆周期因子。 |
| 关键词: 中美贸易摩擦 金融安全 PLS模型 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:国家社会科学基金青年项目“全球金融危机视角下的金融国际化与国家金融安全研究”(项目编号:16CGJ006)。 |
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| Research on the Impact Paths of China-US Trade Friction on China’s Financial Security Validation: Based on PLS Model |
| WU Tingting,YANG Danxi,JIANG Shiyin |
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| Abstract: |
| Using the method of partial least squares path analysis (PLS), the study period from October 2016 to October 2017 and from November 2017 to July 2018 was used to build a simple path model and a composite path model of the impact of the China-US trade friction on China’s financial security. The results show that the compound path model of the research period is more reasonable, the direct negative impact of trade friction has a positive impact on China’s financial security, and the direct negative impact of trade friction can positively affect China’s financial security by positively affecting market sentiment. The direct negative impact of the trade friction on China’s economic fundamentals and thus on China’s financial security is not significant. It is suggested that China should retain stable interest rates, structural adjustment of leverage ratio of foreign trade enterprises, to foster institutional investors in the stock market, maintain high foreign exchange reserves, and continue to use countercyclical factors. |
| Key words: China-US trade friction financial security PLS model |
