| 引用本文： |
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韩中,王刚,刘榴.全球价值链视角下中美增加值贸易与贸易失衡的测算[J].国际商务研究,2020,(3):44-54 [点击复制]
- HAN Zhong,WANG Gang,LIU Liu.全球价值链视角下中美增加值贸易与贸易失衡的测算[J].INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RESEARCH,2020,(3):44-54 [点击复制]
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| 摘要: |
| 基于全球价值链视角，采用多区域投入产出模型，利用世界投入产出表数据，测算了 1995～ 2011年中美增加值出口和双边贸易失衡规模。研究表明：相比于传统贸易出口规模，1995年和 2011年中国增加值出口分别减少 16.06%和24.24%；传统贸易统计方法严重高估中美贸易失衡，同期中美制造业的增加值贸易顺差分别为传统贸易顺差的 5%和10%，而中美农业贸易则由传统贸易逆差转变为增加值贸易顺差，中美服务业贸易则由传统贸易顺差转变为增加值贸易逆差；分要素密集度行业来看，中国劳动密集型和资本密集型行业表现为增加值贸易顺差，而知识密集型服务业则为逆差，且逆差规模逐步扩大。 |
| 关键词: 全球价值链 增加值贸易 多区域投入产出模型 贸易失衡 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“泛 TPP经贸规则下我国融入国际价值链分工战略研究”(项目编号:16JZD019)；教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目“全球价值链视角下我国总出口的增加值分解研究”(项目编号:16YJC910004)。 |
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| Estimation of Sino-US Value Added Trade and Trade Imbalance from the Perspective of Global Value Chain |
| HAN Zhong,WANG Gang,LIU Liu |
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| Abstract: |
| Based on world input-output database, this paper measures the scale of China-US value-added exports and bilateral trade imbalances from 1995 to 2011 with the multi-regional input-output model from the perspective of global value chain. The results show that compared to traditional export scale, value-added export of China decreased by 16.06% and 24.24% respectively in 1995 and 2011. The traditional trade statistics seriously overestimated Sino-US trade imbalance. During the same period, Sino-US value-added trade surplus of manufacturing industry was 5% and 10% of traditional trade surplus, while agricultural trade changed from traditional trade deficit to value-added trade surplus, and services trade shifted from the traditional trade surplus to value-added trade deficit. From the perspective of factor intensive industry, Sino-US labor and capital-intensive industries showed value-added trade surplus, but knowledge-intensive service industries showed trade deficit, and the deficit scale has gradually expanded. |
| Key words: global value chain value-added trade multi-regional input-output model trade imbalance |
