| 摘要: |
| 随着我国企业对外投资的不断增加，投资安全问题越来越突出，如何评价对外投资中
的政治风险是我国企业面临的重要现实问题。本文从政治风险量化评价的视角出发，
总结了政治风险量化评价研究的现状，提出了包含征用与限制风险、资本转移风险和
政治暴力风险的政治风险评价维度；结合我国对外直接投资实际，引入“对华限制”
指标和“对华负面情绪”指标，构建了基于“中国因素”的对外直接投资政治风险评
价模型；建立了以熵值赋权法为核心的多指标综合评价方法，并运用模型和方法对146
个国家在2009~2011年的政治风险进行了实证评价。结果表明，本文提出的政治风险评
价模型与方法契合我国对外直接投资的实际。 |
| 关键词: 对外直接投资 政治风险 评价模型 熵值法 |
| DOI： |
|
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金“我国企业跨文化吸收能力与国际并购绩效研究”（项目编号：71272060）。 |
|
| A Study on the Quantitative Evaluation of Political Risks for China’s OutwardForeign Direct Investment |
| MENG Fan-chen,JIANG Fan |
|
| Abstract: |
| As China’s OFDI developed in recent years, investment security issues have become increasingly
prominent and how to evaluate the political risks is an important problem that Chinese enterprises currently face.
From the perspective of political risk quantitative evaluation, this paper summarizes the status of political risk
quantitative evaluation and proposes political risk dimension which contains expropriation and restriction risk,
transfer risk and political violence risk. according to the characteristics of political risks which are faced by China’s
OFDI, this paper introduces the “Restrictions to China” indicator and the “Aversion to China” indicator, establishes
a “Chinese factor” basis political risk evaluation model. This study also uses the entropy weighting method for an
empirical calculation, based on the data of 146 countries from 2009 to 2011 and the data of China’s OFDI. The
results show that the evaluation model and the method is more effective for the situation of China’s OFDI. |
| Key words: outward foreign direct investment political risk evaluation model entropy method |
