| 引用本文： |
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仰 炬,舒 迷,叶佳颖.增加我国石油产量、进口量能有效
平抑我国油价吗[J].国际商务研究,2013,(4):13-26 [点击复制]
- YANG Ju,SHU Mi,YE Jia-ying.增加我国石油产量、进口量能有效
平抑我国油价吗[J].INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS RESEARCH,2013,(4):13-26 [点击复制]
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| 摘要: |
| 本文通过实证研究揭示国际油价和国内油价之间的协整关系及我国石油产量、进口量
和出口量对石油价格的影响。结果显示：不管增加石油产量还是增加进口量，对于平
抑石油价格的影响都将有限，因为我国目前粗放型经济对石油消费需求的过快增长，
相对我国石油产量和进口量增加远跟不上需求增速，导致价格不断上涨。随着我国经
济结构转型和人口红利消失、有效劳动人口减少，总体经济增速下降，必然导致我国
对外资源依存度趋于平缓甚至下降，在现在这个转折时期，一味单纯地渲染能源饥渴
甚至能源供应危机是危险的。目前不惜代价、大手笔地收购海外资源是不明智也是严
重滞后的举措。 |
| 关键词: 石油价格 产量 回归模型 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2013-03-05 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（项目编号：71173145）、上海市教育委员会和上海市教育发展基金会“曙光计划”
（项目编号：11SG53）、上海市高校人文社会科学重点研究基地上海对外经贸大学国际经济贸易研究所及上
海对外经贸大学085工程项目（项目编号：Z08512604）、上海市教委重点学科（项目编号：J51201）。 |
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| Can Increase in Oil Output and Import Volume EffectivelyStabilize China’s Oil Price |
| YANG Ju,SHU Mi,YE Jia-ying |
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| Abstract: |
| This paper shows how Chinese oil output, import and export influence oil price and reveals the
cointegration relationship between international oil price and domestic oil price through empirical approach.
Empirical results show whether to increase oil outputs or imports has limited effect on stability of the oil price,
because the extensive economy in China has an extremely high growth rate on oil consumption demand, and the
increment of Chinese oil output and import volume cannot keep up with the demand growth, so that the oil price
keeps rising. Along with China’s economic restructuring, disappears of population bonus and decline of population
of the effective labor force, the growth rate of domestic economy decreases. All the factors inevitably lead to
China’s dependence of foreign resource to become much more steady or even decline. At this turning point, it is
dangerous to simply claim energy-hungry or energy supply crisis. It is also an unwise and grave lag measure to
purchase amounts of overseas resources at any cost recently. |
| Key words: oil price output regression model |
